Nate Silver’s Twitter Feed made me aware of the Covid Tracking Project a very useful web site for getting data from each of the fifty states. The site collects data from individual sites that each state is maintaining and summarizes it all.

I’ve taken the data from the site using it’s API and parsed it in a Notebook that I will post on my github site.

I’m going to share some of the first things that I found useful with a focus on states that are most relevant to me: where I live, Indiana, and where friends and family live. But first, disclaimers. I’m not an expert or anything close on this subject, but neither are a lot of other people writing about this. You should get your information from a number of sources (providing you can maintain your mental health), but I would prioritize those that show data rather than just words.

With that said, here are some of things I have learned. First, this is a big country. In looking at the data, it looks like some states have hopefully caught this soon enough and the actions that we have taken may hopefully avert tragedy there. Other’s look more concerning.

Here is Indiana.

The data in the four panes is the same data - just looked at slightly differently. The top row shows cumulative data. The results from one day are added to the results from the results on the previous day. The pane in the top left shows cumulative positive test results and deaths. Because thankfully testing is finally starting to get going, I show positive test results and deaths with total tests which in many cases are starting to be far greater than positive results. The bottom row shows the same data, but it is daily results, not cumulative.

The growth in positive test results for Indiana certainly looks like it is exponentially growing. That maybe should be expected given that Indiana is roughly only one week into a hardcore quarantine. On a more positive note, the testing looks like it may be ramping up.

Here is Iowa.

Iowa also looks like it is in exponential growth. But it’s total numbers are small, which gives me hope that the stringent measures taken now have caught the spread their early on. Inexplicably, Iowa doesn’t seem to have been testing in any consequential numbers until two days ago. Better late then never I guess.

Now for the more disconcerting data point. Here is New York.

The numbers are much higher and growing. It’s easy to see how they can be concerned about exceeding hospital capacity very quickly. The mortality rates are low stil, but in China the mortality rates went up an order of magnitude when the capacity of the hospitals was exceeded. Even if the situation in Iowa or Indiana isn’t as dire yet as New York, I’m glad the steps being taken now may keep us from looking like New York. It should be noted that New York is testing far more people than Iowa or Indiana.